In the first half of 2026, US-China trade relations underwent three rounds of major policy adjustments. These shifts have not only affected bilateral trade but are profoundly altering the LAC trade lane landscape through three pathways: transit trade, supply chain restructuring, and capacity redistribution.
Three Major Policy Shifts
CLLR's geopolitical analysis team has tracked key policy events affecting LAC routes since the start of 2026:
2026 H1 Policy Timeline
- January: US imposed a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, covering EV components and solar panels
- March: China escalated countermeasures against the US, restricting rare earth exports and promoting alternative sourcing from LAC countries
- May: US launched a "transit trade" investigation targeting Mexico, monitoring Chinese goods entering the US through Mexico
Transit Trade Effects
The narrowing of direct US-China trade channels has spawned a surge in trade patterns transiting through LAC. Our data shows:
Transit trade volumes through Mexico and Chile grew 28% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Electronics and machinery are the primary categories. This has directly pushed up rates and capacity tightness on China-to-Mexico and China-to-Chile routes.
Transit trade growth is a double-edged sword. In the short term it brings volume growth and revenue gains, but it also invites stricter customs scrutiny and compliance pressure.
Supply Chain Restructuring Trends
The deeper shift lies in structural supply chain restructuring. An increasing number of Chinese manufacturers are establishing localized production capacity in Mexico and Brazil to circumvent tariff barriers:
Supply Chain Restructuring Signals
- Mexico: Chinese-owned factories in Monterrey and Ciudad Juárez increased 40% compared to 2025
- Brazil: Chinese auto parts manufacturers accelerating factory construction in São Paulo
- Chile: Chinese lithium mining investments driving expansion of supporting logistics facilities
- Colombia: Early signs of textile and light manufacturing capacity shifts
LAC Routes: Benefits & Risks
✅ Benefits
Volume Growth: Overall China-to-LAC route volume grew 18% YoY in Q1, with China-Mexico growing fastest (+32%). Forwarder market activity significantly increased.
⚠️ Risks
Compliance Pressure: US scrutiny of Mexico transit trade may lead to stricter rules of origin requirements for the China-Mexico route. Flagged cargo may face seizure risk.
✅ Benefits
Rate Upswing: Capacity tightness is pushing rates up, improving margins for top forwarders. Growing demand for multimodal transport is spawning new service models.
⚠️ Risks
Speculative Influx: Rising rates are attracting a wave of speculative new forwarders, with inconsistent service quality, quote anomalies, and increased fraud risk.
Outlook & Recommendations
Based on current policy trajectories and market data, we offer the following assessment for H2 2026:
2026 H2 Outlook
- The China-Mexico route will maintain high growth, but compliance scrutiny will tighten significantly
- Chile's role as China's "strategic hub" in South America will further strengthen
- The Brazil route will benefit from the China-Brazil local currency settlement agreement, with rate stability outperforming other lanes
- Colombia's market will undergo a shakeout, with non-compliant forwarders being eliminated faster
- We recommend shippers establish a "dual forwarder" strategy, ensuring backup options when any single forwarder has issues
Data presented is based on Scra_ling engine monitoring and may vary. For actionable intelligence, subscribe to CLLR Pro.